The Women's Health Initiative (WHI) enrolled approximately 27,000 predominantly healthy postmenopausal women in two substudies to assess the risks and benefits of either the use of daily oral conjugated estrogens (CE 0.625 mg) alone or in combination with medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA 2.5 mg) compared to placebo in the prevention of certain chronic diseases. The primary endpoint was the incidence of coronary heart disease [CHD] (nonfatal myocardial infarction [MI], silent MI and CHD death), with invasive breast cancer as the primary adverse outcome. A “global index” included the earliest occurrence of CHD, invasive breast cancer, stroke, pulmonary embolism (PE), endometrial cancer (only in CE/MPA substudy),colorectal cancer, hip fracture, or death due to other causes. The study did not evaluate the effects of CE or CE/MPA on menopausal symptoms.
The estrogen alone substudy was stopped early because an increased risk of stroke was observed, and it was deemed that no further information would be obtained regarding the risks and benefits of estrogen alone in predetermined primary endpoints. Results of the estrogen alone substudy, which included 10,739 women (average age of 63 years, range 50 to 79; 75.3 percent White, 15.1 percent Black, 6.1 percent Hispanic, 3.6 percent Other) after an average follow-up of 6.8 years, are presented in Table 4.
TABLE 4. RELATIVE AND ABSOLUTE RISK SEEN IN THE ESTROGEN ALONE SUBSTUDY OF WHI| Event | Relative Risk CE vs. Placebo (95% nCIa) | Placebo n = 5,429 | CE n = 5,310 |
|---|
Absolute Risk per 10,000 Women-Years |
|---|
| aNominal confidence intervals unadjusted for multiple looks and multiple comparisons. bResults are based on centrally adjudicated data for an average follow-up of 7.1 years. cResults are based on an average follow-up of 6.8 years. dNot included in Global Index. eAll deaths, except from breast or colorectal cancer, definite/probable CHD, PE or cerebrovascular disease. fA subset of the events was combined in a “global index,” defined as the earliest occurrence of CHD events, invasive breast cancer, stroke, pulmonary embolism, colorectal cancer, hip fracture, or death due to other causes. |
| CHD eventsb | 0.95 (0.79-1.16) | 56 | 53 |
| Non-fatal MIb | 0.91 (0.73-1.14)
| 43
| 40
|
| CHD deathb | 1.01 (0.71-1.43)
| 16
| 16
|
| Strokeb | 1.37 (1.09-1.73) | 33 | 45 |
| Ischemicb | 1.55 (1.19-2.01) | 25 | 38 |
| Deep vein thrombosisb,d | 1.47 (1.06-2.06) | 15 | 23 |
| Pulmonary embolismb | 1.37 (0.90-2.07) | 10 | 14 |
| Invasive breast cancerb | 0.80 (0.62-1.04) | 34 | 28 |
| Colorectal cancerc | 1.08 (0.75-1.55) | 16 | 17 |
| Hip fracturec | 0.61 (0.41-0.91) | 17 | 11 |
| Vertebral fracturesc,d | 0.62 (0.42-0.93) | 17 | 11 |
| Total fracturesc,d | 0.70 (0.63-0.79) | 195 | 139 |
| Death due to other causesc,e | 1.08 (0.88-1.32) | 50 | 53 |
| Overall mortalityc,d | 1.04 (0.88-1.22) | 78 | 81 |
| Global Indexc,f | 1.01 (0.91-1.12) | 190 | 192 |
For those outcomes included in the WHI “global index” that reached statistical significance, the absolute excess risk per 10,000 women-years in the group treated with CE alone were 12 more strokes while the absolute risk reduction per 10,000 women-years was 6 fewer hip fractures. The absolute excess risk of events included in the “global index” was a nonsignificant 2 events per 10,000 women-years. There was no difference between the groups in terms of all-cause mortality. (See BOXED WARNINGS, WARNINGS, and PRECAUTIONS.)
Final centrally adjudicated results for CHD events and centrally adjudicated results for invasive breast cancer incidence from the estrogen alone substudy, after an average follow-up of 7.1 years, reported no overall difference for primary CHD events (nonfatal MI, silent MI and CHD death) and invasive breast cancer incidence in women receiving CE alone compared with placebo (see Table 4).
Centrally adjudicated results for stroke events from the estrogen alone substudy, after an average follow-up of 7.1 years, reported no significant difference in distribution of stroke subtype or severity, including fatal strokes, in women receiving CE alone compared to placebo. Estrogen alone increased the risk of ischemic stroke, and this excess was present in all subgroups of women examined (see Table 4).
The estrogen plus progestin substudy was also stopped early. According to the predefined stopping rule, after an average follow-up of 5.2 years of treatment, the increased risk of breast cancer and cardiovascular events exceeded the specified benefits included in the “global index.” The absolute excess risk of events included in the “global index” was 19 per 10,000 women-years (relative risk [RR] 1.15, 95 percent nCI 1.03-1.28).
For those outcomes included in the WHI “global index” that reached statistical significance after 5.6 years of follow-up, the absolute excess risks per 10,000 women years in the group treated with CE/MPA were 6 more CHD events, 7 more strokes, 10 more PEs, and 8 more invasive breast cancers, while the absolute risk reductions per 10,000 women-years were 7 fewer colorectal cancers and 5 fewer hip fractures. (See BOXED WARNINGS, WARNINGS, and PRECAUTIONS.)
Results of the estrogen plus progestin substudy, which included 16,608 women (average age of 63 years, range 50 to 79; 83.9 percent White, 6.8 percent Black, 5.4 percent Hispanic, 3.9 percent Other), are presented in Table 5. These results reflect centrally adjudicated data after an average follow-up of 5.6 years.
TABLE 5. RELATIVE AND ABSOLUTE RISK SEEN IN THE ESTROGEN PLUS PROGESTIN SUBSTUDY OF WHI AT AN AVERAGE OF 5.6 YEARSa| Event | Relative Risk CE/MPA vs. Placebo (95% nCIb) | Placebo n = 8,102 | CE/MPA n = 8,506 |
|---|
Absolute Risk per 10,000 Women-years |
|---|
| aResults are based on centrally adjudicated data. Mortality data was not part of the adjudicated data; however, data at 5.2 years of follow-up showed no difference between the groups in terms of all-cause mortality (RR 0.98, 95 percent nCI 0.82-1.18). bNominal confidence intervals unadjusted for multiple looks and multiple comparisons. cIncludes metastatic and non-metastatic breast cancer, with the exception of in situ breast cancer. |
| CHD events | 1.24 (1.00-1.54) | 33 | 39 |
| Non-fatal MI | 1.28 (1.00-1.63) | 25 | 31 |
| CHD death | 1.10 (0.70-1.75) | 8 | 8 |
| All strokes | 1.31 (1.02-1.68) | 24 | 31 |
| Ischemic Stroke | 1.44 (1.09-1.90) | 18 | 26 |
| Deep vein thrombosis | 1.95 (1.43-2.67) | 13 | 26 |
| Pulmonary embolism | 2.13 (1.45-3.11) | 8 | 18 |
| Invasive breast cancerc | 1.24 (1.01-1.54) | 33 | 41 |
| Invasive colorectal cancer | 0.56 (0.38-0.81) | 16 | 9 |
| Endometrial cancer | 0.81 (0.48-1.36) | 7 | 6 |
| Cervical cancer | 1.44 (0.47-4.42) | 1 | 2 |
| Hip fracture | 0.67 (0.47-0.96) | 16 | 11 |
| Vertebral fractures | 0.65 (0.46-0.92) | 17 | 11 |
| Lower arm/wrist fractures | 0.71 (0.59-0.85) | 62 | 44 |
| Total fractures | 0.76 (0.69-0.83) | 199 | 152 |