The WHI enrolled a total of 27,000 predominantly healthy postmenopausal women in two substudies to assess the risks and benefits of either the use of oral conjugated estrogens (CE 0.625 mg per day) alone or the use of oral conjugated estrogens (CE 0.625 mg) plus medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA 2.5 mg per day) compared to placebo in the prevention of certain chronic diseases. The primary endpoint was the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) (nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), silent MI and CHD death), with invasive breast cancer as the primary adverse outcome studied. A "global index" included the earliest occurrence of CHD, invasive breast cancer, stroke, pulmonary embolism (PE), endometrial cancer, colorectal cancer, hip fracture, or death due to other cause. The study did not evaluate the effects of CE or CE/MPA on menopausal symptoms.
The estrogen-plus-progestin substudy was stopped early. According to the predefined stopping rule, after an average follow-up of 5.2 years of treatment, the increased risk of breast cancer and cardiovascular events exceeded the specified benefits included in the "global index." The absolute excess risk of events included in the "global index" was 19 per 10,000 women-years (RR 1.15, 95% nCI 1.03-1.28).
For those outcomes included in the WHI "global index," that reached statistical significance after 5.6 years of follow-up, the absolute excess risks per 10,000 women-years in the group treated with CE/MPA were six more CHD events, seven more strokes, ten more PEs, and eight more invasive breast cancers, while the absolute risk reductions per 10,000 women-years were seven fewer colorectal cancers and five fewer hip fractures. (See BOXED WARNINGS, WARNINGS, and PRECAUTIONS.)
Results of the estrogen-plus-progestin substudy, which included 16,608 women (average age of 63 years, range 50 to 79; 83.9 % White, 6.8 % Black, 5.4 % Hispanic, 3.9% Other) are presented in Table 4 below:
TABLE 4 RELATIVE AND ABSOLUTE RISK SEEN IN THE ESTROGEN-PLUS-PROGESTIN SUBSTUDY OF WHI AT AN AVERAGE OF 5.6 YEARS
| Event | Relative Risk CE/MPA vs. Placebo (95% nCI) | CE/MPA n = 8,506 | Placebo n = 8,102 |
|---|
| | Absolute Risk per 10,000 Women-years |
|---|
| CHD events | 1.24 (1.00-1.54) | 39 | 33 |
| Non-fatal MI | 1.28 (1.00-1.63) | 31 | 25 |
| CHD death | 1.10 (0.70-1.75) | 8 | 8 |
| All strokes | 1.31 (1.02–1.68) | 31 | 24 |
| Ischemic stroke | 1.44 (1.09–1.90) | 26 | 18 |
| Deep vein thrombosis | 1.95 (1.43–2.67) | 26 | 13 |
| Pulmonary embolism | 2.13 (1.45–3.11) | 18 | 8 |
| Invasive breast cancer
| 1.24 (1.01–1.54) | 41 | 33 |
| Invasive colorectal cancer | 0.56 (0.38–0.81) | 9 | 16 |
| Endometrial cancer | 0.81 (0.48–1.36) | 6 | 7 |
| Cervical cancer | 1.44 (0.47–4.42) | 2 | 1 |
| Hip fracture | 0.67 (0.47–0.96) | 11 | 16 |
| Vertebral fractures | 0.65 (0.46–0.92) | 11 | 17 |
| Lower arm/wrist fractures | 0.71 (0.59–0.85) | 44 | 62 |
| Total fractures | 0.76 (0.69–0.83) | 152 | 199 |
The estrogen-alone substudy was also stopped early because an increased risk of stroke was observed, and it was deemed that no further information would be obtained regarding the risks and benefits of estrogen alone in predetermined primary endpoints. Results of the estrogen-alone substudy, which included 10,739 women (average age of 63 years, range 50 to 79; 75.3 % White, 15.1 % Black, 6.1 % Hispanic, 3.6% Other), after an average follow-up of 6.8 years are presented in Table 5 below.
TABLE 5 RELATIVE AND ABSOLUTE RISK SEEN IN THE ESTROGEN-ALONE SUBSTUDY OF WHINominal confidence intervals unadjusted for multiple looks and multiple comparisons.
| Event | Relative Risk CE vs. Placebo | CE n = 5,310 | Placebo n = 5,429 |
|---|
| (95% nCI) | Absolute Risk per 10,000 Women-years |
|---|
| CHD events Results are based on centrally adjudicated data for an average follow-up of 7.1 years. | 0.95 (0.79–1.16) | 53 | 56 |
| Non-fatal MI | 0.91 (0.73–1.14) | 40 | 43 |
| CHD death | 1.01(0.71–1.43) | 16 | 16 |
| Stroke Results are based on an average follow-up of 6.8 years. | 1.39 (1.10-1.77) | 44 | 32 |
| Deep vein thrombosis , Not included in Global Index. | 1.47 (1.06–2.06) | 23 | 15 |
| Pulmonary embolism | 1.37 (0.90–2.07) | 14 | 10 |
| Invasive breast cancer | 0.80 (0.62–1.04) | 28 | 34 |
| Colorectal cancer | 1.08 (0.75–1.55) | 17 | 16 |
| Hip fracture | 0.61 (0.41–0.91) | 11 | 17 |
| Vertebral fractures , | 0.62 (0.42-0.93) | 11 | 17 |
| Total fractures , | 0.70 (0.63-0.79) | 139 | 195 |
| Death due to other causes , | 1.08 (0.88–1.32) | 53 | 50 |
| Overall mortality , | 1.04 (0.88–1.22) | 81 | 78 |
| Global Index , | 1.01 (0.91–1.12) | 192 | 190 |
For those outcomes included in the WHI "global index" that reached statistical significance, the absolute excess risk per 10,000 women-years in the group treated with estrogen-alone was 12 more strokes, while the absolute risk reduction per 10,000 women-years was six fewer hip fractures. The absolute excess risk of events included in the "global index" was a nonsignificant two events per 10,000 women-years. There was no difference between the groups in terms of all-cause mortality. (See BOXED WARNINGS, WARNINGS, and PRECAUTIONS.)
Final adjudicated results for CHD events from the estrogen-alone substudy, after an average follow-up of 7.1 years, reported no overall difference for primary CHD events (nonfatal MI, silent MI and CHD death) in women receiving CE alone compared with placebo (see Table 5).